Bill Gates feels Generative AI has plateaued, says GPT-5 will not be any better::The billionaire philanthropist in an interview with German newspaper Handelsblatt, shared his thoughts on Artificial general intelligence, climate change, and the scope of AI in the future.
I hope so. Theyve already got scary implications for creative parts of the economy.
That said, we’re in the Cambrian explosion of the tech. As it plateaus, the next step will be enhanced tooling and convenience around it. Better inputs than just text, better, more applications in new spaces, etc.
On the one hand, I don’t really know enough about AI to comment. What I do remember is that, Bill Gates said the Internet was just a fad in the 90s. This comment caused myself and others problems promoting the Internet in workplaces because those in charge for some reason put some weight to his words. :p
And the Wright Brothers said heavier than air flight would only ever be an amusement for the rich, and never commercially viable.
Even taking Gates’ qualifications at face value doesn’t mean he’s actually right.
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He just has money, which gives him and too many others the idea that he has expertise.
And a voice that should be heard
He has money because he was a damn fine computer programmer, had some great ideas, and got pretty good at selling and monopolizing his product. He doesn’t “just have money”. He was skilled and intelligent. He may or may not be wrong about gpt, but he has a hell of a lot more knowledge about the subject and insight into gpt’s inner workings than probably anyone else on Lemmy.
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You didn’t read the Wright brothers or this article did you? Gates isn’t at all damning AI tech. All he said is that gpt 5 is unlikely to be very different from 4. He’s probably correct. A next best word algorithm can only go so far. Thats only a part of how language and cognition works. Until some sort of adjunct algorithm gets tagged on I don’t think we will see big leaps either.
They are already bolting on multi modality, autonomous agent behavior and so on. Most uses are no longer just token prediction, but a whole soup of other models and data injection. That sort of combination of things will get us to the next level )and already has in many ways).
Source on that quote from the Wright brothers? Because they never said that as far as I’m aware.
They didn’t, AFAIK. It was a NYT article that quoted someone who made a similar prediction:
Once the Wright Brothers proved flight was possible, some assumed it was just a pointless rich play thing. Famed astronomer William H. Pickering said, “The expense would be prohibitive to any but the capitalist who could use his own yacht.”
And 640k ought to be enough for anybody.
If it comes from Billyboy, he could be right in the sense that it won’t get any better for the filthy commoners
Not a single comment yet stating how Gates is a great human being because of his foundation, and how all you haters should fuck the fuck off? sigh, let me the first one.
They’re upset he insulted their AI girlfriends.
You mean his tax haven?
I mean they’ve done some good things, but the capitalist system that gave him his wealth is the same one that causes poverty and his foundation isn’t working to change that.
Just to make things extremely clear, the above comment has been sarcastic. He’s an awful person.
Isn’t this the same guy that said we won’t ever need more than 64K of RAM?
640k (the conventional limit in DOS), and he didn’t actually say it.
I think he could be right about generative AI, but that’s not a serious problem given we’re moving beyond generative AI and into virtual intelligence territory.
Generative ai right now requires someone (or something) to initiate it with a prompt, but according to some of the latest research papers in OpenAI as well as the drama that happened recently surrounding the leadership, it appears that we’re moving beyond the ‘generative’ phase into the ‘virtual intelligence’ phase.
It’s not going to be ‘smart’ it will be knowledgeable (and accurate, hopefully). That is to say VI’s will be useful as data retrieval or organization but not necessarily data creation (although IIRC the way to get around this would be to develop a VI that specifically only works on creating ideas but we’d be moving into AGI territory and I don’t expect we’ll have serious contenders for AGI for another decade at least).
The rumours abound surrounding the OpenAI drama, the key one being the potential for accidentally developing AGI internally (I doubt this heavily). The more likely reason is that the board of directors had a financial stake in Nvidia and when they found out altman was working on chips specifically for AI that were faster, lower cost, and lower power consumption than current nvidia trash (by literally tens of thousands of dollars), they fired him to try and force the company onto their preferred track (and profit in the process, which IMO, kind of ironic that a non-profit board of directors has so many ‘closed door’ discussions with nvidia staff…)
This is just the thoughts of a comp-sci student with a focus on artificial intelligence systems.
If interested in further reading:
https://www.ibm.com/blog/understanding-the-different-types-of-artificial-intelligence/
https://digitalreality.ieee.org/publications/virtual-intelligence-vs-artificial-intelligence
Keep in mind that because it’s still early days in this field that a lot of terms haven’t reached an established consensus across academia yet, so you’ll notice variations in how each organization explains what “x” type of intelligence is.
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“GPT-4 should be enough for anyone.” -Bill Gates
What does Bill Gates know about GenAI? Is he an expert on the subject?
He’s not. He might pay experts, but he isn’t one.
bill is a wanker. dont be like bill.
Now now. He only hired assholes and monsters to execute immoral MS mob style tactics, while he played the great innocent altruist.
Since I started using AI in March, it has not stop getting better and better with it seemingly accelerating not decelerating. If we are heading to a plateau, there are no signs of it yet. I am sure there will be plateaus, and maybe we have even had one earlier this year, but with the speed of AI development, it may mean a plateau of months versus the normal years. We will see. Bill has been saying a lot of things these past years that make no sense, unless you look at it from a money/market manipulation perspective.
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But we have more areas to apply this to. I still can’t ask my PC to do some work, like Unistall OneDrive or change a setting in the OS. Send a message on Teams. Where is Jarvis?
Having Generative AI make API calls on your behalf is a work in progress across pretty much every industry. It’ll make complex tasks across multiple services a lot easier but it’s definitely going to cause weird unpredictable behavior too.
That is why you have to confirm the action before execting
I wouldn’t trust it do everything yet, but it sure as hell would be useful to retrieve information. Wish I could just ask it “Hey, is the door locked?” and get an answer.
Maybe it could suggest actions, but I wouldn’t want to have it do anything without manual human confirmation, it’s too unreliable.
Sure bill.
I mean he she should know. Windows plateaued about 20 years ago.
