When will it be worth zero? At a rate of $2 billion per month, 10 months??
To whom? Is anyone willing to buy it?
Maybe the old Twitter execs will buy it for that price. Musk should ask. Lol
Even then, there’s not much to buy given Musk fired all the talent.
Yea…Parag is a badass. Musk was trying to weasel out of the deal but Parag made him buy it and to make the deal even better, Parag got fired, which gave him millions of dollars for free (golden parachute).
If it keeps trajectory ill be able to afford the whole of twitter
Still seems way overpriced. Doesn’t even have name recognition anymore.
I’d guess that $19 billion is the value where if someone bought it and did their best to undo everything and get it back on track, that’s how much it would be worth.
The problem with measuring value is you have to quantify what that $19 billion actually is. Like you could say it’s the share price times the number of shares, except now twitter is privately owned we don’t have a market share price anymore.
Theoretically what someone would pay for it. The buyer always has plans to make it better.
Or the textbook definition, the present value of the sum of all future profits.
The buyer always has plans to make it better.
That’s an interesting claim to make, especially on this post 😄
Indeed very interesting. It is a fundamental principle of finance: Investors seek to maximize utility, but this is under the axiom of complete rationality. And even if that condition is met (which I doubt), the utility function of money is not concave at all levels, for example leftmost of the graph, before the price of food. I think that after some point, utility becomes flat and Musk is way beyond that point. Additionally he seems to be a risk loving investor, not a risk averse.
it’s x’s own current valuation, to calculate stock options to give to employees
Yeah it’s never going to be called just “X”, it’s always going to be “X, formerly twitter”.
Just like Prince the whole time he changed his name to that symbol.
Prince wanted people to call him Prince. He changed his name to that symbol to get out of a shitty contract with Warner Bros.
“Warner Bros took the name, trademarked it, and used it as the main marketing took to promote all of the music I wrote,” Prince once said in a press release. “The company owns the name Prince and all related music marketed under Prince. I became merely a pawn used to produce more money for Warner Bros.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-36107590
Elon changed Twitter to X because he’s a babyman who never got over the fact that PayPal didn’t like the name.
I really wish xitter had have caught on.
I wonder if that’s a portion of why it’s devalued so much. I mean I know there’s a dozen or more other reasons but brand recognition could very well be one of them.
Take a look at their user data over the past year with the name change date in mind.
It’s is absolutely ASTONISHING how fucking moronic and empty headed Elon Musk is. A literal idiot with all the money.
Boy are you going to have a real egg on your face whenever X becomes a successful blogging/dating/banking/investing app \s
They surely still own the twitter name right
Can any trademark lawyer in the audience tell us how long before, if Musk lets the trademark lapse, some rando could come along and make a Twitter clone while literally just calling it “Twitter?”
Meta is being told to drop the “Threads” name, it would be hilarious if they changed it to “Twitter”
People recognize it, just not as X lol
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Is that before or after you factor in the $13 billion debt it took on to buy itself on Musk’s behalf?
Makes sense.
Almost immediately after buying it, Elon enshittified the site - and not only that, but changed it’s branding from one of the most recognisable names/logos in the world to a fucking “X” (almost always suffixed with “formerly Twitter” so people actually remember what the fuck it is)
It’s not even a unique X. The exact X they’re using as a logo already exists as a Unicode character 𝕏
Wow, that makes it even worse. Couldn’t even be bothered to pay someone to make a logo, just stole it from Unicode
almost always suffixed with “formerly Twitter” so people actually remember what the fuck it is
This continues to bring me such joy.
Ditto - and I hope it angers Elon with every mention
I will never stop calling it twatter
Is this just part of the playbook for him to not have to pay taxes by saying he lost all his money??
Only if he sells it
Most of his money is in Tesla stock, seeing how that’s been going
TwitterX will be the last of his money, rather sad huh?Not even in this slightest is that sad. The economy correcting for the wrong person having massive wealth.
To put this in perspective, they lost an average of $2B per month in value. According to HUD, there were about 582,000 homeless people in the US last year. $2B per month is enough to house all of them nearly 4 times over if you assume $1k per month in housing expenses.
What a monumental waste of resources that could have made a difference. Musk just sucks
It’s not real money, though. It’s all just speculative value based on estimates of future revenue.
The real barrier to ending homelessness is the large number of real estate vacancies that are held open to prop up the price of the housing market. Twitter’s lost value has nothing to do with that.
all the people that imagine their home prices are as high as they are, will fight tooth and nail to prevent this. the empty house market is crazy, just look on a “social home sharing site”. houses are hotels for the few.
As someone who sees my property tax bill jump 10% / year, I have no interest in rising real estate prices. I’m not selling any time soon and I use my house to live in rather than to invest.
You’ve missed the mark on two counts:
- Musk raised $44B of real money to buy Twitter and bring it into private ownership. I’m saying had he just left well enough alone, he could have used that money for other purposes
- Your point on adding more supply to the real estate market to prop up prices is the opposite of Econ 101 - more supply, all things equal, will reduce prices. Mental health is a much larger barrier to receiving help for the homeless.
I used to volunteer weekly with homeless and housing insecure people in Philadelphia and untreated mental health or substance abuse was an issue for many. There are also barriers to receiving government aid that would assist them because many programs require an address or the process is unnecessarily complicated.
Housing is just one step. They would also require a great deal of counseling, job training, and medical attention to reintegration into society. Anyway, my point was simply to illustrate what a magnificent waste of resources it was to buy Twitter.
Musk raised $44B of real money to buy Twitter
He raised $20B by using his own (highly inflated) Tesla stock as collateral. So this wasn’t new money, it was a swap. He covered the balance with Twitter’s own equity as collateral (which is a big reason why he’s been so cavalier with its devaluation). This new money was effectively just to keep a business in the red from running out of operating income.
more supply, all things equal, will reduce prices.
Not under a cartel. And real estate markets are increasingly cartelized, with large vacancies kept off the market clearing rate in order to prop up the book value of the rest of the market.
untreated mental health or substance abuse was an issue for many. There are also barriers to receiving government aid that would assist them because many programs require an address or the process is unnecessarily complicated.
Which creates a vicious cycle, sure. But the solution is to reclaim vacant real estate from speculators and use it as real housing.
Building more investment properties and vacant luxury units to increase book value of real estate does nothing to reduce homelessness.
Housing is just one step. They would also require a great deal of counseling, job training, and medical attention to reintegration into society.
All services that are best delivered to housed populations. What’s more, they’re services with a universal application. You don’t just need to be homeless to benefit from professional counseling, education, and public health care.
But, again, sky high real estate costs make these services prohibitively expensive to expand into neighborhoods.
Delivering these services at cost requires local governments to reclaim vacant real estate kept open at above market clearance rates and turning it over to public sector service providers.
There is no “real” money. It’s all speculative based on what value people assign to it. For example, you may have noticed that the US dollar has become worth significantly less in recent years. Shares and fiat currency just have different volatility.
The US dollar has outpaced nearly every other global currency. Five years ago you’d get 100 yen to the dollar. Now you get 150.
But cartelization of the supply chain means we don’t get to see the benefits of low import prices. The difference all goes to business profit, while real increases in material and labor get passed on to the consumer.
Netflix buys anime for pennies on the dollar and sells it back at escalating rates. They spend less and we pay more.
The US dollar was just an example so this discussion is tangential to the point I was trying to make. That said, your argument does not support an increasing value of the dollar - it only says it has increased in value relative to other currencies. But I’m sure you know that inflation has been staggeringly high which means you get less food on the table for a dollar, and salaries have not been keeping up.
Or put in other words, if you were to invest in US dollars instead of shares then you would have seen the value of your portfolio going down, in terms of what it can get you at Costco.
That said, your argument does not support an increasing value of the dollar
Increase in exchange value means the cost of imports fall.
But the 44B was payed, so they do/did exist. Now he could have just NOT bought twitter and spent half of this money on the poor et voilà no more homeless for at least 4 years.
But you are right with the rest.
But the 44B was payed, so they do/did exist.
It was mostly debt swaps. Elon traded equity in Tesla for equity in Twitter.
Well akschually probably about 22/23 billion were cash according to reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/how-will-elon-musk-pay-twitter-2022-10-07/
According to a Reuters calculation, Musk had about $20 billion cash after selling part of his stake in Tesla through multiple transactions in November and December last year and April and August.
My mistake. I mistakenly thought he’d simply swapped the Tesla stock at face value, rather than cashing it out via a brokerage.
No problemo. I usually don’t give a shit about this kind of stuff, but if a single person buys for such a huge sum, I maybe look into it.
Seems like the buyer was very dumb
He still is and will probably always be
I don’t think you can recover from being that dumb.
That guy definitely can’t. His stupidity seems to get worse with every single day.
Higher than I expected.
This is like your neighbor gifting you their child’s drawing and saying it’s worth $100.
Without somebody actually buying at that price, it’s just a made up number.
There are methodical ways of valuating a private (and public) company. Some are pessimistic and some are wildly optimistic. Your can legally use whichever one you want, only you must only use that valuation method for everything. It’s illegal to value the company low for taxes and high for loan collateral. And if you sell it, you can owe back taxes if your valuation was off (sale price is the new valuation).
This is overly-simplified US accounting rules (from finance class 10 years ago)
Hadn’t it already massively dropped in value before the purchase was finalized, and that’s why he wanted to back out? How is everybody overlooking that?
Twitter was never worth anywhere close to the 40 billion he publicly announced he’d pay for it whether or not a “significant” drop before purchase occurred.
can’t know how much is worth until is sold again
“No low ballers, I know what I’ve got!” - Musk, probably
I don’t think anyone will buy it ever again
…Yaccarino said that revenues grew in the high-single digit percentage…
She should start her own line of perfume. Desperation, by Linda Yaccarino.
Guaranteed to make you smell Musky.
She’s gotta be getting some serious compensation to throw her reputation in the garbage like this. I just can’t see how it makes any other sense for her in the long run.
Lol it’s not worth anything near that much
It’s all gonna fold once interest rates get high enough. Didn’t he borrow like 13 billion?
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