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3 is possible if the physical run to your home is in bad shape. I’ve known two people who had weather dependant internet due to that.
Actually, I’d chalk it up to a radio backhaul between the fiber demark and the ISP’s router. Providers do weird shit sometimes.
But I’d be surprised if getting a fiber connection wet would affect it.
Fiber can be surprisingly resilient to bad connections so if water is getting into a lose connection or very minor break that could be messing with the laser path and increasing the optical loss
